Thu. Nov 15th, 2018

Betting picks for every team total in Week 10

Here's a look at the team totals for all 28 teams playing in Week 11, along with our picks and confidence level:

Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers

Panthers team total: 23.5

Offensive coordinator Norv Turner has Carolina's offense humming. The Panthers boast a top-eight offense in adjusted yards per play (5.9) this season and are tied for fourth in the league over the last three games (6.5). However, they haven't fared well on the road and will face a Steelers defense that hasn't allowed more than 24 points since Week 4.

Pick: Under (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐

Steelers team total: 27.5 points

Carolina's wins on paper look great, but its secondary is still tough to trust against any sort of efficient passing offense. The Steelers should flex their muscles at home on prime time.

Pick: Over (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Redskins team total: 23.5 points

The Redskins lost three offensive starters in last week's loss to Atlanta, but face a Tampa Bay defense allowing 6.6 yards per play this season. However, we'll give the advantage to the Bucs, who've been exceptionally better defensively at home.

Pick: Under (-110)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Buccaneers team total: 27.5 points

Tampa Bay's offensive numbers have been slightly skewed this season due to a ton of scoring in garbage time. This game doesn't figure to be a shootout, as Washington's defense is allowing just 21.5 points per game in 2018.

Pick: Under (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Lions team total: 17.5 points

Detroit is in the midst of an offensive funk, totaling just 23 points in the last two weeks. It'll be another tough matchup Sunday when the Lions face a Bears defense that's top five in the league in both yards and points allowed per game. However, this might be the best price we'll get on a Lions team total over all season.

Pick: Over (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Bears team total: 26.5 points

The Bears' offense is quietly ranked No. 5 in the league in scoring. Mitchell Trubisky shouldn't have to do things by himself against a Lions defense allowing 142.5 yards per game on the ground. This will likely be the highest team total for the Bears all season, but one that's well within striking distance for an offense that's been clicking.

Pick: Over (-138)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐

Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs

Cardinals team total: 16.5 points

Stopping the Chiefs' offense has been a problem, but scoring on their defense hasn't. Arizona's bye gave the team another week to get things in place under promoted offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich. Should the Cardinals bend the knee early, they'll at least have a shot to get this one over in the second half during mop-up duty.

Pick: Over (-110)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Chiefs team total: 33.5 points

Head coach Andy Reid hasn't fared well when laying double digits (-16.5 on Sunday), as highlighted Wednesday. There are typically few reasons to take the Chiefs' team total under on a weekly basis, but perhaps the trend will continue.

Pick: Under (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐

Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns

Falcons team total: 28.5 points

This might be a good spot to pump the brakes on the Falcons, who are playing their second straight road game, are on an 0-8 skid against the spread versus the AFC, and haven't consistently scored points away from home.

Pick: Under (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Browns team total: 22.5 points

We have a tough time believing the Falcons' defense is fixed after allowing 20 and 14 points to the Giants and Redskins, respectively, over the last two weeks. This should be a good matchup for Baker Mayfield, who's lost steam during Cleveland's four-game losing streak.

Pick: Over (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals

Saints team total: 30.5 points

The sharp play would be a stab at the under, but Drew Brees, dome or not, should be able to pick apart Cincinnati's No. 31-ranked pass defense.

Pick: Over (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐

Bengals team total: 23.5 points

The Bengals' offense looked to be on the cusp of something special to start the season but reverted to mediocrity after Tyler Eifert went down in Week 4. Now Cincinnati won't have A.J. Green, who's sidelined until late November with a toe injury.

Pick: Under (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans

Patriots team total: 27.5 points

The Titans are your No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL, giving up just 17.6 points per game. The offensive competition hasn't exactly been stiff, though, with the Titans facing teams like Miami, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Baltimore, and Dallas.

Pick: Over (+100)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Titans team total: 19.5 points

Was Monday night against the Cowboys the turning point for Tennessee's offense? Probably not, but New England's defense still has holes. At a price lower than 20, it's not a bad gamble to take another shot on Marcus Mariota and Co.

Pick: Over (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

Jaguars team total: 21.5 points

Blake Bortles must love playing the Colts. He's posted an average quarterback rating of 105.3 with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions over his last six meetings with Indianapolis. The Jaguars fall into an optimal spot Sunday following their bye week.

Pick: Over (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Colts team total: 23.5 points

Jacksonville's defense needs to answer the bell sooner rather than later. In a crucial divisional game with extra time to prepare, this is the week they get back on track.

Pick: Under (-110)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Bills team total: 13.5 points

Josh Allen's status is up in the air for Week 10 and Derek Anderson remains in the concussion protocol, leaving one man to lead Buffalo into battle. Will Bills fans' GoFundMe to have Nathan Peterman exiled from Buffalo be enough to light a fire under the second-year quarterback? Unlikely.

Pick: Under (-110)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐

Jets team total: 22.5 points

Jets rookie Sam Darnold isn't expected to suit up Sunday due to a foot strain, leaving the reins to veteran Josh McCown.

Points can still be scored in gross matchups, but we just can't see it here.

Pick: Under (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐

Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders

Chargers team total: 30.5 points

We fired on the Chargers' number of 23.5 last weekend at Seattle. Sunday's number against the Raiders is a bit steeper, but it's easy to see why: Oakland is last in the league in opponent yards per play. The Raiders can't stop a soul and we don't think having a couple more days of rest will even matter against Philip Rivers and the No. 3 offense in adjusted yards per play.

Pick: Over (-110)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Raiders team total: 19.5 points

Derek Carr might attempt 55 passes Sunday. The only upside to the Raiders' tumultuous first season under Jon Gruden is the chance that they screw around and score points to make games more interesting.

Pick: Over (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐

Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers

Dolphins team total: 17.5 points

Green Bay's defense just dealt with Jared Goff and Tom Brady in consecutive road losses. Getting Brock Osweiler and the Miami Dolphins up north in cold temperatures should be the recipe for a rebound.

Pick: Under 17.5 (-110)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐

Packers team total: 29.5 points

Green Bay, back at home, with Aaron Rodgers off back-to-back losses? We feel sorry for the Dolphins' secondary.

Pick: Over (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

Seahawks team total: 19.5 points

We profiled Seattle's trend of flying under the total in road divisional games earlier this week. We're expecting a bounce-back game from the Rams' defense after being embarrassed last weekend in New Orleans.

Pick: Under (+100)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Rams team total: 30.5 points

Last week, the Seahawks were a Chargers pick-6 away from allowing fewer than 20 points in five of their last six games. The lone outlier from that streak was L.A., who hung 33 in Seattle back in Week 5. Given our lean to the full-game under, it makes sense to look that way for the Rams' number.

Pick: Under (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

Cowboys team total: 16.5 points

It's been tough sledding for the Cowboys' offense recently, especially on the road. Dallas is averaging just 13.3 points over its last six road games, dating back to 2017.

Pick: Under (+100)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Eagles team total: 26.5 points

Dallas' defense gets the nod here after allowing 28 points in a home loss to the Titans.

Pick: Under (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers

Giants team total: 20.5 points

We like the Giants in this spot, who are coming off a bye against a 49ers defense allowing roughly 27 points per game this season.

Pick: Over (+100)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

49ers team total: 23.5 points

How many times do you see backup quarterbacks go bonkers in their first start, only to come crashing down? It's probably not backed by any relevant data, but we'll gamble against Nick Mullens in this spot.

Pick: Under (-120)
Confidence Level: ⭐ ⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

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