Sun. Dec 16th, 2018

5 betting tips for Week 6 of the NFL season

Drew Brees bouncing back and helping the New Orleans Saints cover with ease? Check.

The Denver Broncos struggling with an early kickoff on the East Coast? Check check.

Those were just a couple angles we dug into last weekend. In fact, tailing all four angles in last week's cheat sheet would have resulted in wins. It won't be like that every week in a market that's tough to find an edge in, but use as many tools as you can to cap games in the NFL.

Here are some angles and factors to keep an eye on for Week 6:

Watch the weather

Have you ever bet an over on a total so generously low that you were genuinely curious if you just fleeced the oddsmakers, only to turn on the game and see puddles of rain? Wind, cold temperatures, and even snow will start coming into play as the season rolls on. Week 6 features a handful of matchups to monitor.

Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns (+1); O/U 44.5

The forecast is projecting winds between 12-15 mph in Cleveland around the time the ball's kicked off the tee. Betting the under in games with more than 10 mph of wind has been slightly profitable in the past and it makes sense given the increased difficulty of completing passes downfield and kicking field goals. The edge here would likely lean to the home team in Cleveland, which ranks No. 2 in the NFL with 144.6 rushing yards per game this season. The total opened up at 46 and dropped to 44.5 in most shops.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5); O/U 53

Staying in Ohio, there isn't expected to be much wind in Cincinnati, though rain could throw a wrench in the plans of the Steelers-Bengals matchup on Sunday. Cincy is projected to see a 40 percent chance of showers in the morning, then another 40 percent chance right around the time of kickoff.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (+3); O/U 43.5

It might be sopping wet conditions in East Rutherford when the Eagles meet the Giants for a Thursday Night Football contest. Weather reports are calling for steady thunderstorms throughout the day and a 40 percent chance of showers by game time.

Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos (+7); O/U 52.5

A snow game in early October? It could happen. There's a 50 percent chance precipitation will move through Denver in the hours leading up to kickoff. It's just a matter of whether the temperature gets below 32 degrees Fahrenheit to turn rain into snow.

Compare current lines with Vegas' preseason lookahead lines

Here are some of the biggest discrepancies between the 2018 lookahead lines made over the summer and the current odds for Week 6:

Atlanta Falcons (vs. Tampa Bay)

Lookahead line: Atlanta -7

Current line: Atlanta -3.5

__________

Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Pittsburgh)

Lookahead line: Cincinnati +4

Current line: Cincinnati -2.5

__________

Oakland Raiders (vs. Seattle)

Lookahead line: Oakland -1.5

Current line: Oakland +3

__________

Miami Dolphins (vs. Chicago)

Lookahead line: Miami -1.5

Current line: Miami +3

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Los Angeles Rams (at Denver)

Lookahead line: Los Angeles -2.5

Current line: Los Angeles -7

Fade the Giants in the first half

Streeter Lecka / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Maybe not all the time, but Thursday against the Eagles does call for a profitable angle to fade the G-Men. Over the last two seasons, New York is 0-8 against the first-half spread when the Giants range from three-point favorites to three-point 'dogs. New York, for whatever reason, has been woeful offensively in this spot, too, averaging fewer than six points in the first half over the recent, small sample. Toss in some wet conditions and it might be an ugly game for the Giants, who are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Carolina Panthers in Week 5.

Play on Andrew Luck/Colts as a road underdog

The Colts with Andrew Luck under center are 9-3 against the spread as a road underdog over the last 12 games and are currently on a 6-1 run, which was snapped last Thursday against the New England Patriots. Indianapolis is also covering the spread more than 66 percent of the time after a straight-up loss over its last 50-plus games. The Colts get some extra rest before they travel to take on the New York Jets, who are coming off a rout of the Broncos but have yet to string together back-to-back consistent performances this season under quarterback Sam Darnold.

Is it the perfect time to buy low on the Patriots?

It feels like an annual occurrence: The Patriots lose a game or two early in the season, only to click it into high gear through the rest of the schedule. Now's about the time when head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady turn it up. Over the past three seasons from Weeks 5-9, the Patriots are 8-1 against the spread and 17-6 against the spread at home.

New England dropped consecutive games before steamrolling both the Miami Dolphins and Colts, outscoring those two 76-24 and covering the two games with relative ease. Monday will set up a revenge game for the Patriots, who were embarrassed at home by the Chiefs in last year's opener, 42-27.

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

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